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Definition

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At a GlanceThe optimism bias fools us into thinking that the negative consequences of our actions are unlikely to happen.

At a Glance

The optimism bias fools us into thinking that the negative consequences of our actions are unlikely to happen.

While we often like to think of ourselves as highly rational, researchers have found that the human brain can be too optimistic for its own good.

If you were asked to estimate how likely you are to get divorced, come down with an illness, experience job loss, or have an accident, you would likely underestimate the probability that such events will ever happen to you.

Let’s talk about how the optimism bias affects your life, as well as what research has said about it.

How Cognitive Biases Influence How You Think and Act

What Is the Optimism Bias?

Your brain has a built-in optimism bias. The phenomenon is also called “the illusion of invulnerability,” “unrealistic optimism,” and a “personal fable.”

The ​optimismbias is a mistaken belief that our chances of experiencing negative events in life are lower and that our chances of experiencing positive events are higher than those of our peers.

Negative Effects of the Optimism Bias

The optimism bias does not mean that we have an overly sunny outlook on our own lives. It can lead to poordecision-making, which may have disastrous results.

For example, people might skip their yearly physical, fail to wear their seatbelt, choose not to save money for an emergency fund, or decide not to wear sunscreen because they mistakenly believe that things like getting ill, having a car accident, experiencing a financial catastrophe, or getting skin cancer won’t happen to them.

Cognitive neuroscientist Tali Sharot, author ofThe Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain, notes that the optimism bias is widespread and can be seen in cultures all over the world.

COVID-19 and the Optimism BiasDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, some studies suggested that the optimism bias may have played a role in people deciding whether or not to take preventive steps.When people felt that they were not likely to get COVID, they were less likely to take preventive steps.

COVID-19 and the Optimism Bias

During the COVID-19 pandemic, some studies suggested that the optimism bias may have played a role in people deciding whether or not to take preventive steps.When people felt that they were not likely to get COVID, they were less likely to take preventive steps.

How Learned Optimism Can Improve Your Life

Benefits of the Optimism Bias

Sharot suggests that while this bias can lead to negative outcomes at times, like foolishly engaging in risky behaviors or making poor choices about your health, it can also have benefits. If we expect good things to happen to us, we are more likely to be happy. In a2012 TED Talk, Sharot explained that this optimism can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. By believing that they will be successful, people are, in fact, more likely to succeed.

Being optimistic also motivates us to pursue our goals. After all, if we didn’t think that we could achieve success, why would we even bother trying? Optimists are also more likely to take measures to protect their health, such as exercising and eating a nutritious diet.

Benefits of Positive Thinking

Causes of the Optimism Bias

When we evaluate our risks, we compare our situation to others. But we are also egocentric, meaning that we focus on ourselves instead of realistically looking at how we compare to others.

We’re also highly motivated to be optimistic. By believing that we are unlikely to fail and more likely to succeed, we have moreself-esteem, lower stress levels, and better overall well-being.

The Optimism Bias ConundrumOptimism bias increases the belief that good things will happen in your life no matter what, but it may also lead to poor decision-making because you’re not worried about risks.

The Optimism Bias Conundrum

Optimism bias increases the belief that good things will happen in your life no matter what, but it may also lead to poor decision-making because you’re not worried about risks.

The following are some of the factors that make the optimism bias more likely to occur:

Below are some of the factors that decrease the optimism bias:

Is It Safer to Be a Pessimist?

Optimism Bias Research

While researchers have attempted to help people reduce the optimism bias—especially to promote health-supporting behaviors and discourage risky behaviors—they have found that reducing or eliminating the bias is very difficult.

Studies that have tried to reduce the optimism bias through actions such as educating participants about risk factors, encouraging volunteers to consider high-risk examples, and educating subjects about why they were at risk have shown these attempts lead to little change and, in some cases, increase the optimism bias.

For example, telling someone the risks of dying from a particular lifestyle habit, such assmokingcan make them feel more “invincible” compared to other people.

5 Unbelievable Facts About Optimists

15 Sources

Verywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.

Bortolotti L.Optimism, agency, and success.Ethic Theory Moral Prac.2018;21:521–535. doi:10.1007/s10677-018-9894-6

Mihai Dricu, Kress L, Aue T.The neurophysiological basis of optimism bias.Elsevier eBooks. Published online January 1, 2020:41-70. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-816660-4.00003-9

Weinstein ND.Unrealistic optimism about future life events.J Pers Soc Psychol. 1980;39(5):806-820. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806

University of Texas – Austin.Optimism bias: The dark side of looking at the bright side.

Prater J, Kirytopoulos K, Ma T.Optimism bias within the project management context: a systematic quantitative literature review.Int J Manag Proj Bus. 2017;10(2): 370-385. doi:10.1108/IJMPB-07-2016-006

Sharot T.The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain.Pantheon/Random House; 2011.

Bottemanne H, O Morlaàs, Fossati P, Schmidt L.Does the Coronavirus Epidemic Take Advantage of Human Optimism Bias?Frontiers in Psychology. 2020;11. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.02001

Pascual-Leone A, Cattaneo G, Macià D, Solana J, Tormos JM, Bartrés-Faz D.Beware of Optimism Bias in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Ann Neurol. 2021;89(3):423-425. doi:10.1002/ana.26001

Shepperd JA, Klein WMP, Waters EA, Weinstein ND.Taking stock of unrealistic optimism.Perspect Psychol Sci. 2013;8(4):395–411. doi:10.1177/1745691613485247

Sharot T.The optimism bias.Curr Biol. 2011;21(23):R941-945. doi:10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030

Joshi MS, Carter W.Unrealistic optimism: east and west?Front Psychology. 2013;4:6. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00006

Dariusz Doliński, Kulesza W, Muniak P, Dolińska B, Rafał Węgrzyn, Kamil Izydorczak.Media intervention program for reducing unrealistic optimism bias: The link between unrealistic optimism, well‐being, and health.Applied Psychology: Health and Well-Being. 2021;14(2):499-518. doi:10.1111/aphw.12316

The Decision Lab.Optimism bias.

Dolinski D, Kulesza W, Muniak P, Dolinska B, Węgrzyn R, Izydorczak K.Media intervention program for reducing unrealistic optimism bias: The link between unrealistic optimism, well-being, and health.Appl Psychol Health Well Being. 2022;14(2):499-518. doi:10.1111/aphw.12316

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