How to Prevent Illusory Correlation From Influencing Our Decisions

Table of ContentsView AllTable of ContentsWhy and How Does Illusory Correlation Occur?Factors Influencing Illusory CorrelationWhat Are the Consequences of Illusory Correlation?How to Reduce Illusory Correlation

Table of ContentsView All

View All

Table of Contents

Why and How Does Illusory Correlation Occur?

Factors Influencing Illusory Correlation

What Are the Consequences of Illusory Correlation?

How to Reduce Illusory Correlation

Close

Illusory correlation is defined as a cognitive bias in which an individual’s perception of the relationship between two variables is distorted, creating a false connection. Examples of illusory correlation in everyday life include the belief that certain groups of individuals are more prone to violence, or that a certain lifestyle causes certain diseases.

This phenomenon can have serious implications for decision-making and lead to incorrect assumptions about cause and effect. To prevent illusory correlation from influencing our decisions, it is important to be aware of how thisbiasworks and take steps to reduce its impact.

Causes and mechanisms of illusory correlation include cognitive biases, overemphasis on uncommon events, and mental shortcuts.

Cognitive Biases

Cognitive biases that contribute to illusory correlation include confirmation bias and the availability heuristic.

Overemphasis on Uncommon Events

Rare occurrences or distinctive traits can lead to an overemphasis on their association, reinforcing the illusory correlation.

For instance, if a person notices two instances of a headache occurring after eating a certain food, the person might associate this behavior with that food. Even though this could be an isolated incident, it is more likely to stand out in the person’s memory and lead to false conclusions about cause and effect. This phenomenon can also lead toovergeneralizationandstereotypingof certain groups of people.

Mental Shortcuts

Our brains often rely on heuristics, such as pattern recognition and simplification, which can inadvertently create illusory correlations.

Factors influencing illusory correlation include context and expectations, stereotypes and biases, and media influence.

Context and Expectations

Preconceived notionsand expectations can influence the perception of correlation between unrelated events or traits. For example, if a person is expecting two events to be related, this expectation can bias their interpretation of the situation and lead to false conclusions.

Similarly, context can also influence how one perceives the relationship between variables, such as when someone’s preconceived notions about certain groups of people shape their understanding of those people.

Stereotypes and Biases

Existing stereotypes and biases can amplify the tendency to perceive illusory correlations, leading toprejudiceanddiscrimination. For example, if an individual has a negative opinion of certainracialor ethnic groups, they may be more likely to believe that criminality is more common among those groups even when evidence does not support this.

How People’s Prejudices Develop

Media Influence

Mediahas a role in shaping illusory correlations through selective reporting, sensationalism, and the portrayal of false connections.

Consequences of illusory correlation include prejudice and discrimination, false beliefs, and decision-making errors.

Prejudice and Discrimination

Illusory correlation contributes to the formation and reinforcement of stereotypes, leading to prejudice and discriminatory behaviors. This can manifest in a variety of forms, including discrimination in employment and housing, disparities in criminal justice outcomes, and biased healthcare practices.

False Beliefs

Illusory correlation can lead to the development and perpetuation of false beliefs, misinformation, andconspiracy theories.

People tend to form connections between events that are not necessarily related and may even invent causal relationships where none exist. This can lead to disproportionately strong negative reactions orfear of certain individuals, groups, and situationsthat are not based in reality.

Decision-Making Errors

Illusory correlation can impactdecision-making processes, as it can lead to biases in various domains, including healthcare, criminal justice, and personal relationships.People may make decisions based on erroneous assumptions and false connections, which can lead to inaccurate judgments and poor outcomes.

Illusory correlation can be reduced through critical thinking skills, seeking diverse perspectives, and empirical evidence.

Critical Thinking Skills

Cultivatingcritical thinking skills, including skepticism, evaluating evidence, and considering alternative explanations is an effective way to reduce the influence of illusory correlation.

People should be aware of how preconceived notions and existing biases can shape their perception, and strive to make decisions based on facts rather than false connections.

Seeking Diverse Perspectives

Seekingdiverse perspectivesand challenging our own assumptions is critical to counteract the influence of illusory correlation. Inviting dissenting opinions and seeking alternate interpretations can also help to identify false assumptions and erroneous conclusions.

Empirical Evidence

Relying on empirical evidence,scientific research, and data to form accurate judgments and beliefs is the best way to counteract illusory correlation.

Gathering data and researching trends can help to identify actual patterns of relationships between events or traits, rather than perceived correlations. Additionally, avoiding stereotypes and unfounded assumptions can help to reduce the influence of illusory correlation.

SummaryIn summary, illusory correlation refers to the tendency for people to perceive a relationship between two unrelated events or traits due to existing biases or expectations.This phenomenon can lead to prejudice and discrimination, false beliefs, as well as decision-making errors. To reduce its effects, critical thinking skills should be honed; diverse perspectives should be sought; and empirical evidence should be relied upon. With these steps, it is possible to prevent illusory correlations from influencing our decisions.

Summary

In summary, illusory correlation refers to the tendency for people to perceive a relationship between two unrelated events or traits due to existing biases or expectations.This phenomenon can lead to prejudice and discrimination, false beliefs, as well as decision-making errors. To reduce its effects, critical thinking skills should be honed; diverse perspectives should be sought; and empirical evidence should be relied upon. With these steps, it is possible to prevent illusory correlations from influencing our decisions.

In summary, illusory correlation refers to the tendency for people to perceive a relationship between two unrelated events or traits due to existing biases or expectations.

This phenomenon can lead to prejudice and discrimination, false beliefs, as well as decision-making errors. To reduce its effects, critical thinking skills should be honed; diverse perspectives should be sought; and empirical evidence should be relied upon. With these steps, it is possible to prevent illusory correlations from influencing our decisions.

10 Cognitive Distortions That Can Cause Negative Thinking

7 SourcesVerywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.Rollwage M, Loosen A, Hauser TU, Moran R, Dolan RJ, Fleming SM.Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias. Nat Commun. 2020 May 26;11(1):2634. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16278-6. PMID: 32457308; PMCID: PMC7250867.Ly DP.The Influence of the Availability Heuristic on Physicians in the Emergency Department.Ann Emerg Med. 2021;78(5):650-657. doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2021.06.012Risen JL, Gilovich T, Dunning D.One-shot illusory correlations and stereotype formation.Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2007;33(11):1492-1502. doi:10.1177/0146167207305862Thew GR, Gregory JD, Roberts K, Rimes KA.Self-Critical Thinking and Overgeneralization in Depression and Eating Disorders: An Experimental Study.Behav Cogn Psychother. 2017;45(5):510-523. doi:10.1017/S1352465817000327Branch F, Santana I, Hegdé J.Biasing Influence of ‘Mental Shortcuts’ on Diagnostic Decision-Making: Radiologists Can Overlook Breast Cancer in Mammograms When Prior Diagnostic Information Is Available. Diagnostics (Basel). 2022 Jan 4;12(1):105. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics12010105. PMID: 35054272; PMCID: PMC8774943.van Prooijen JW, Douglas KM, De Inocencio C.Connecting the dots: Illusory pattern perception predicts belief in conspiracies and the supernatural. Eur J Soc Psychol. 2018 Apr;48(3):320-335. doi: 10.1002/ejsp.2331. Epub 2017 Sep 25. PMID: 29695889; PMCID: PMC5900972.Klein JG.Five pitfalls in decisions about diagnosis and prescribing. BMJ. 2005 Apr 2;330(7494):781-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.330.7494.781. PMID: 15802723; PMCID: PMC555888.

7 Sources

Verywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.Rollwage M, Loosen A, Hauser TU, Moran R, Dolan RJ, Fleming SM.Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias. Nat Commun. 2020 May 26;11(1):2634. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16278-6. PMID: 32457308; PMCID: PMC7250867.Ly DP.The Influence of the Availability Heuristic on Physicians in the Emergency Department.Ann Emerg Med. 2021;78(5):650-657. doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2021.06.012Risen JL, Gilovich T, Dunning D.One-shot illusory correlations and stereotype formation.Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2007;33(11):1492-1502. doi:10.1177/0146167207305862Thew GR, Gregory JD, Roberts K, Rimes KA.Self-Critical Thinking and Overgeneralization in Depression and Eating Disorders: An Experimental Study.Behav Cogn Psychother. 2017;45(5):510-523. doi:10.1017/S1352465817000327Branch F, Santana I, Hegdé J.Biasing Influence of ‘Mental Shortcuts’ on Diagnostic Decision-Making: Radiologists Can Overlook Breast Cancer in Mammograms When Prior Diagnostic Information Is Available. Diagnostics (Basel). 2022 Jan 4;12(1):105. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics12010105. PMID: 35054272; PMCID: PMC8774943.van Prooijen JW, Douglas KM, De Inocencio C.Connecting the dots: Illusory pattern perception predicts belief in conspiracies and the supernatural. Eur J Soc Psychol. 2018 Apr;48(3):320-335. doi: 10.1002/ejsp.2331. Epub 2017 Sep 25. PMID: 29695889; PMCID: PMC5900972.Klein JG.Five pitfalls in decisions about diagnosis and prescribing. BMJ. 2005 Apr 2;330(7494):781-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.330.7494.781. PMID: 15802723; PMCID: PMC555888.

Verywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.

Rollwage M, Loosen A, Hauser TU, Moran R, Dolan RJ, Fleming SM.Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias. Nat Commun. 2020 May 26;11(1):2634. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16278-6. PMID: 32457308; PMCID: PMC7250867.Ly DP.The Influence of the Availability Heuristic on Physicians in the Emergency Department.Ann Emerg Med. 2021;78(5):650-657. doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2021.06.012Risen JL, Gilovich T, Dunning D.One-shot illusory correlations and stereotype formation.Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2007;33(11):1492-1502. doi:10.1177/0146167207305862Thew GR, Gregory JD, Roberts K, Rimes KA.Self-Critical Thinking and Overgeneralization in Depression and Eating Disorders: An Experimental Study.Behav Cogn Psychother. 2017;45(5):510-523. doi:10.1017/S1352465817000327Branch F, Santana I, Hegdé J.Biasing Influence of ‘Mental Shortcuts’ on Diagnostic Decision-Making: Radiologists Can Overlook Breast Cancer in Mammograms When Prior Diagnostic Information Is Available. Diagnostics (Basel). 2022 Jan 4;12(1):105. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics12010105. PMID: 35054272; PMCID: PMC8774943.van Prooijen JW, Douglas KM, De Inocencio C.Connecting the dots: Illusory pattern perception predicts belief in conspiracies and the supernatural. Eur J Soc Psychol. 2018 Apr;48(3):320-335. doi: 10.1002/ejsp.2331. Epub 2017 Sep 25. PMID: 29695889; PMCID: PMC5900972.Klein JG.Five pitfalls in decisions about diagnosis and prescribing. BMJ. 2005 Apr 2;330(7494):781-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.330.7494.781. PMID: 15802723; PMCID: PMC555888.

Rollwage M, Loosen A, Hauser TU, Moran R, Dolan RJ, Fleming SM.Confidence drives a neural confirmation bias. Nat Commun. 2020 May 26;11(1):2634. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16278-6. PMID: 32457308; PMCID: PMC7250867.

Ly DP.The Influence of the Availability Heuristic on Physicians in the Emergency Department.Ann Emerg Med. 2021;78(5):650-657. doi:10.1016/j.annemergmed.2021.06.012

Risen JL, Gilovich T, Dunning D.One-shot illusory correlations and stereotype formation.Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2007;33(11):1492-1502. doi:10.1177/0146167207305862

Thew GR, Gregory JD, Roberts K, Rimes KA.Self-Critical Thinking and Overgeneralization in Depression and Eating Disorders: An Experimental Study.Behav Cogn Psychother. 2017;45(5):510-523. doi:10.1017/S1352465817000327

Branch F, Santana I, Hegdé J.Biasing Influence of ‘Mental Shortcuts’ on Diagnostic Decision-Making: Radiologists Can Overlook Breast Cancer in Mammograms When Prior Diagnostic Information Is Available. Diagnostics (Basel). 2022 Jan 4;12(1):105. doi: 10.3390/diagnostics12010105. PMID: 35054272; PMCID: PMC8774943.

van Prooijen JW, Douglas KM, De Inocencio C.Connecting the dots: Illusory pattern perception predicts belief in conspiracies and the supernatural. Eur J Soc Psychol. 2018 Apr;48(3):320-335. doi: 10.1002/ejsp.2331. Epub 2017 Sep 25. PMID: 29695889; PMCID: PMC5900972.

Klein JG.Five pitfalls in decisions about diagnosis and prescribing. BMJ. 2005 Apr 2;330(7494):781-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.330.7494.781. PMID: 15802723; PMCID: PMC555888.

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