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Have you ever found yourself stuck in a conversation with someone who thinks just a little too highly of themselves? That might be due to the overconfidence bias. It’s when people think they are better at something than they actually are. They’re super confident, even when their skills don’t measure up.
“Overconfidence bias occurs when individuals overestimate their abilities, knowledge, or control over situations,” explainsDr. Ozan Toy, MD, MPH, the chief medical officer at Telapsychiatry.
At a GlanceIt’s not easy to admit (trust us, we know), but sometimes, we aren’t as smart, skilled, or perfect as we like to think we are. Overconfidence can stem from factors like our upbringing and self-perceptions and can affect the decisions we make and the risks we take. We’re all prone to experiencing overconfidence bias, but learning to gauge our abilities accurately can help us make better decisions and avoid risks.
At a Glance
It’s not easy to admit (trust us, we know), but sometimes, we aren’t as smart, skilled, or perfect as we like to think we are. Overconfidence can stem from factors like our upbringing and self-perceptions and can affect the decisions we make and the risks we take. We’re all prone to experiencing overconfidence bias, but learning to gauge our abilities accurately can help us make better decisions and avoid risks.
What Is the Overconfidence Bias?
Overconfidence is acognitive biaswhere we overestimate our abilities or knowledge. We incorrectly assume that we are better, wiser, or more capable than we are. This bias can seriously affect our behavior and ability to predict success and accurately gauge risk.
While this positivity feels great, it can tip into overconfidence, making us believe we’re invincible even when we’re not. There is a fine line that oftentimes may feel like a balancing act.—DILLON HARPER, PHD
While this positivity feels great, it can tip into overconfidence, making us believe we’re invincible even when we’re not. There is a fine line that oftentimes may feel like a balancing act.
—DILLON HARPER, PHD
This bias affects how we judge our abilities in many areas, including school, work, hobbies, everyday tasks, and even moral judgments. As a result, we often overestimate how smart, capable, and successful we are.
Overconfidence can also interact with other biases.Hindsight bias, aka the “I knew it all along” effect, makes us think we can predict events' outcomes. This tendency makes us feel even more overconfident in our abilities.
We also tend to believe that good things are more likely to happen to us (and that bad things are less likely). Thisoptimism biashelps fuel our overconfidence. Because we expect to succeed, we can sometimes be too confident that our plans will pan out.
Examples of Overconfidence Bias
Overconfidence can affect us in many areas of our lives, from our relationships to our jobs.
Job Hunting or Advancement
When you’re looking for a new job, you might feel overconfident in your qualifications when you apply for a new position. Because you think that you assume that getting the job is a sure thing (after all, you’re the best), you might be shocked and disappointed when they pass you over for another applicant. The same may occur if you are passed over for a promotion or don’t get the raise you were expecting.
Parenting
Health and Fitness Goals
Like many people, I tend to set overly ambitious health goals. I’ll tell myself I will work out every day, no excuses. I’ll fully believe I can stick with it (despite never having stuck to a strict workout routine ever before in my life). The problem with overconfidence is that it can lead you to create goals that are a little too lofty, leading to frustration when you hit an obstacle.
It’s easy to become overconfident when pursuing a health or fitness goal. When reality sets in, and your motivation and confidence wane. Focusing on 100% perfection—instead of consistent but gradual progress—often leads to burnout.
What Causes the Overconfidence Bias?
One review of howcognitive biasesimpact professional decision-making in medicine, finance, law, and management found that overconfidence was the most common biases.
What causes people to experience this excessive or unrealistic faith in themselves? A few factors may play a role, including:
Lack of Experience
Have you ever watched an online video demonstrating certain skills and thought, “I can do that”? One 2018 study tasked participants with watching videos of others performing a skill such as throwing darts or doing the moonwalk. What they found is that watching others fosters the illusion of skill acquisition. People thought they could perform the task and were overconfident in their ability to succeed.
High Core Self-Evaluations
Core self-evaluations are how people subconsciously evaluate themselves, their control over their lives, and their abilities. It’s a stable personality trait composed of self-esteem,locus of control,self-efficacy, andneuroticism.
High-core self-evaluations can be good; they’re linked to greater well-being and life satisfaction.However, they can result in unwarranted confidence and poor decision-making when they are excessively high.
Upbringing
According toRenée Zavislak, LMFT, a licensed marriage and family therapist and host of “Psycho Therapist: The Podcast,” childhood experiences and upbringing can also contribute to a sense of overconfidence in adulthood. “Overconfidence bias is often the result of what we call ‘false empowerment’ in childhood,” she says.
She continues, “Parents who consistently tell their children things like, ‘You’re the best’ and ‘You are good at everything you do’ rather than true, realistic compliments like, ‘Yours is my favorite’ and ‘I am proud of you,’ tend to foster the development of an overconfidence bias.”
This can be particularly problematic when people encounter resistance as they enter adulthood and find that others don’t respond with the same unending enthusiasm.
“These realistic–but for them, contradictory–experiences create distress, confusion, resentment, and job dissatisfaction. Their job histories show frequent movement, as they quickly and easily feel under-appreciated at work,” Zavislak explains.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect
Overconfidence can also be related to a psychological phenomenon known as theDunning-Kruger effect. This happens when people with low ability or knowledge overestimate their competence in that area.
In other words, people are bad at something, but they are so bad that they don’t have the knowledge or abilities to evaluate their own performance accurately.
An inability to accept feedback can also play a part in this effect. “Individuals with excessive confidence often believe they are more skilled than they truly are and may resist feedback,” explains Arizona-based therapistRacheal Turner, LPC.
This inflated sense of self can lead to struggles with comparing themselves to others, sometimes resulting in a sense of superiority or a belief in unique abilities that aren’t as exceptional as they perceive.—RACHEAL TURNER, LPC
This inflated sense of self can lead to struggles with comparing themselves to others, sometimes resulting in a sense of superiority or a belief in unique abilities that aren’t as exceptional as they perceive.
—RACHEAL TURNER, LPC
Power
Researchers have also found that people in positions of power tend to assume that other people share their attitudes and emotions. In one version of the experiment, participants who felt powerful were more likely to mistakenly assume that others were displaying emotions similar to their own.
Overconfidence Bias in Your Daily Life
Overconfidence can affect the behaviors and decisions we make every day. We make choices because we think we know best and feel confident in our actions. However, it can also cause us to act irrationally without researching our options or exercising necessary caution.
“When we overestimate our abilities, it’s like walking a tightrope with a blindfold. We’re more likely to take unnecessary risks, ignore important feedback, or skip preparation because we think we’ve got it all under control,” Dr. Harper says. “When things don’t go as planned, the fall from that high can be harsh, leading to disappointment and a hit to our self-esteem.”
At work, for example, we might take on things we think we can handle, only to find that we took on too much, didn’t leave enough time to finish, or didn’t have the skills and experience to do the job. The result is feeling overwhelmed andburnt out.
Vikas Keshri, MSW, RSW, the clinical director at Bloom Clinical Care, notes that overconfidence can also negatively affect your relationships. “Nobody likes dealing with overconfident people, particularly when their arrogance is unfounded,” he explains.
Main character syndrome, a phenomenon where people see themselves as the protagonist and treat everyone else as background characters, often stems from overconfidence bias, Keshri suggests.
Overconfidence can get you into trouble in other ways, too. Researchers found that when people felt they were experts in one subject, they were also more likely to claim knowledge of concepts, events, and people who don’t actually exist. For example, people who felt overconfident in their geography expertise tended to claim knowledge of nonexistent locations.
While it might make sense that people inflate their knowledge to look better than they are, telling people that some of the concepts they would hear about were fake didn’t impact their tendency to overclaim knowledge. Researchers suggest that this means the effect wasn’t linked to impression management.
Overconfidence can also lead to a belief inconspiracy theoriesand the spread ofmisinformation. Research has found that people are often overconfident in their ability to recognize false news, which then leads to the spread of false or low-quality information on social media.
Overconfidence Can Also Have Serious Effects
The effects of this overconfidence can be serious. It can affect your ability to make sound choices.
The implications can be significant for professionals working in certain fields that require sound decision-making. Overconfidence can be particularly harmful in healthcare settings, contributing to serious medical errors and misdiagnosis.
In one study, researchers found that medical residents who were highly confident in their abilities did not have higher diagnostic accuracy than a less confident control group.
Overcoming Overconfidence Bias
Overconfidence bias can be difficult to overcome because we just don’t always recognize it. One study found that 65% of American adults think they are smarter than average, a number that was even higher among men.
On the other hand, some people are prone to experienceimposter syndrome, where they actually underestimate their own skills and expertise.
What can you do to manage overconfidence without undermining your own self-esteem?
Therapy can also be helpful, says Turner. “Starting therapy can help you recognize where overconfidence has led to mistakes, relationship struggles, and disappointment,” she suggests. “By learning from these experiences, you can develop a more realistic self-assessment and gain insights into how your childhood may have influenced this behavior.”
Takeaways
Confidence isn’t a bad thing. Being very sure of yourself can give you the push you need to try new things and take risks that can help you learn and grow.
However, overconfidence can lead us astray and lead to costly mistakes in many areas of our lives. Awareness of the problem can help you make a more balanced and realistic assessment of your abilities.
When Too Much Self-Confidence Is a Bad Thing
8 SourcesVerywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.Berthet V.The impact of cognitive biases on professionals' decision-making: A review of four occupational areas.Front Psychol. 2022;12:802439. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.802439Kardas M, O’Brien E.Easier seen than done: merely watching others perform can foster an illusion of skill acquisition.Psychol Sci. 2018;29(4):521-536. doi:10.1177/0956797617740646Chen W, Yang T, Luo J.Core self-evaluation and subjective wellbeing: A moderated mediation model.Front Public Health. 2022;10:1036071. Published 2022 Dec 20. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1036071Overbeck JR, Droutman V.One for all: social power increases self-anchoring of traits, attitudes, and emotions.Psychol Sci. 2013;24(8):1466-1476. doi:10.1177/0956797612474671Atir S, Rosenzweig E, Dunning D.When knowledge knows no bounds: self-perceived expertise predicts claims of impossible knowledge.Psychol Sci. 2015;26(8):1295-1303. doi:10.1177/0956797615588195Lyons BA, Montgomery JM, Guess AM, Nyhan B, Reifler J.Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(23):e2019527118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2019527118Al-Maghrabi M, Mamede S, Schmidt HG, et al.Overconfidence, time-on-task, and medical errors: Is there a relationship?Adv Med Educ Pract. 2024;15:133-140. doi:10.2147/AMEP.S442689Heck PR, Simons DJ, Chabris CF.65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence: Results of two nationally representative surveys. van Amelsvoort T, ed.PLoS One. 2018;13(7):e0200103. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0200103
8 Sources
Verywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.Berthet V.The impact of cognitive biases on professionals' decision-making: A review of four occupational areas.Front Psychol. 2022;12:802439. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.802439Kardas M, O’Brien E.Easier seen than done: merely watching others perform can foster an illusion of skill acquisition.Psychol Sci. 2018;29(4):521-536. doi:10.1177/0956797617740646Chen W, Yang T, Luo J.Core self-evaluation and subjective wellbeing: A moderated mediation model.Front Public Health. 2022;10:1036071. Published 2022 Dec 20. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1036071Overbeck JR, Droutman V.One for all: social power increases self-anchoring of traits, attitudes, and emotions.Psychol Sci. 2013;24(8):1466-1476. doi:10.1177/0956797612474671Atir S, Rosenzweig E, Dunning D.When knowledge knows no bounds: self-perceived expertise predicts claims of impossible knowledge.Psychol Sci. 2015;26(8):1295-1303. doi:10.1177/0956797615588195Lyons BA, Montgomery JM, Guess AM, Nyhan B, Reifler J.Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(23):e2019527118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2019527118Al-Maghrabi M, Mamede S, Schmidt HG, et al.Overconfidence, time-on-task, and medical errors: Is there a relationship?Adv Med Educ Pract. 2024;15:133-140. doi:10.2147/AMEP.S442689Heck PR, Simons DJ, Chabris CF.65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence: Results of two nationally representative surveys. van Amelsvoort T, ed.PLoS One. 2018;13(7):e0200103. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0200103
Verywell Mind uses only high-quality sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. Read oureditorial processto learn more about how we fact-check and keep our content accurate, reliable, and trustworthy.
Berthet V.The impact of cognitive biases on professionals' decision-making: A review of four occupational areas.Front Psychol. 2022;12:802439. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.802439Kardas M, O’Brien E.Easier seen than done: merely watching others perform can foster an illusion of skill acquisition.Psychol Sci. 2018;29(4):521-536. doi:10.1177/0956797617740646Chen W, Yang T, Luo J.Core self-evaluation and subjective wellbeing: A moderated mediation model.Front Public Health. 2022;10:1036071. Published 2022 Dec 20. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1036071Overbeck JR, Droutman V.One for all: social power increases self-anchoring of traits, attitudes, and emotions.Psychol Sci. 2013;24(8):1466-1476. doi:10.1177/0956797612474671Atir S, Rosenzweig E, Dunning D.When knowledge knows no bounds: self-perceived expertise predicts claims of impossible knowledge.Psychol Sci. 2015;26(8):1295-1303. doi:10.1177/0956797615588195Lyons BA, Montgomery JM, Guess AM, Nyhan B, Reifler J.Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(23):e2019527118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2019527118Al-Maghrabi M, Mamede S, Schmidt HG, et al.Overconfidence, time-on-task, and medical errors: Is there a relationship?Adv Med Educ Pract. 2024;15:133-140. doi:10.2147/AMEP.S442689Heck PR, Simons DJ, Chabris CF.65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence: Results of two nationally representative surveys. van Amelsvoort T, ed.PLoS One. 2018;13(7):e0200103. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0200103
Berthet V.The impact of cognitive biases on professionals' decision-making: A review of four occupational areas.Front Psychol. 2022;12:802439. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.802439
Kardas M, O’Brien E.Easier seen than done: merely watching others perform can foster an illusion of skill acquisition.Psychol Sci. 2018;29(4):521-536. doi:10.1177/0956797617740646
Chen W, Yang T, Luo J.Core self-evaluation and subjective wellbeing: A moderated mediation model.Front Public Health. 2022;10:1036071. Published 2022 Dec 20. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1036071
Overbeck JR, Droutman V.One for all: social power increases self-anchoring of traits, attitudes, and emotions.Psychol Sci. 2013;24(8):1466-1476. doi:10.1177/0956797612474671
Atir S, Rosenzweig E, Dunning D.When knowledge knows no bounds: self-perceived expertise predicts claims of impossible knowledge.Psychol Sci. 2015;26(8):1295-1303. doi:10.1177/0956797615588195
Lyons BA, Montgomery JM, Guess AM, Nyhan B, Reifler J.Overconfidence in news judgments is associated with false news susceptibility.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(23):e2019527118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2019527118
Al-Maghrabi M, Mamede S, Schmidt HG, et al.Overconfidence, time-on-task, and medical errors: Is there a relationship?Adv Med Educ Pract. 2024;15:133-140. doi:10.2147/AMEP.S442689
Heck PR, Simons DJ, Chabris CF.65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence: Results of two nationally representative surveys. van Amelsvoort T, ed.PLoS One. 2018;13(7):e0200103. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0200103
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